Tether’s Valuation Could Soar — But CEO Says $515B Is “Bearish”

In a recent X (formerly Twitter) thread, Paolo Ardoino, Tether’s CTO and de facto spokesperson, reacted to a valuation estimate that pegged the stablecoin giant at a jaw-dropping $515 billion—enough to rank it as the 19th‑largest company worldwide, surpassing the likes of Costco and Coca‑Cola. Ardoino described that figure as a “beautiful number,” but also suggested it might undervalue the company’s growing financial strength.

“Tether valuation at 515B is a beautiful number. Maybe a bit bearish considering our current (and increasing) Bitcoin + Gold treasury, yet I’m very humbled…”

How the $515B Estimate Was Calculated

Base Assumption: If Tether were to IPO, analysts (led by Artemis’ Jon Ma) used Circle’s $30B market valuation post-NYSE debut and its estimated 69× EBITDA multiple (based on projected 2025 EBITDA of $41B) as benchmarks.

Tether’s Earnings: In 2024, Tether earned $13B in net profits—$7B from treasury yields and repos, plus an additional ~$5B in unrealized gains on its Bitcoin and gold holdings.

Projection: With an anticipated $50–60B increase in USDT supply (bringing average supply to $170B) and a 4.2% Fed Funds rate, Tether’s 2025 EBITDA could reach $7.4B. Multiplying this by 69× leads to the $515B figure.

Ardoino: “Maybe a Bit Bearish”

Despite the headline-grabbing valuation:

• Ardoino emphasized that the figure may be conservative, given Tether’s expanding reserves of Bitcoin + gold, which aren’t fully factored into EBITDA.
• He described the valuation as humbled and beautiful, while thanking the community: “Also truly excited for the next phase of growth of our company. Thank you everyone ❤️”

Why Tether Isn’t Going Public…—Yet

Ardoino took a dismissive stance on an IPO, stating simply: “No need to go public.” Tether is content remaining private, even as rival Circle (issuer of USDC) has already launched successfully on the NYSE.

What Comes Next?

• Valuation Potential: Bitcoin advocates like Anthony Pompliano and Jack Mallers have speculated that Tether’s value could one day reach $1 trillion.
• Liquidity & Reserves: Tether continues to grow its treasury in high-yield assets and diversify holdings—particularly in Bitcoin and gold, enhancing long-term value.
• Market Position: As the largest stablecoin issuer behind USDT (with a market cap around $155 B), Tether’s strategy still revolves around robust growth—without relying on public markets.

In short, Paolo Ardoino sees the $515B valuation as a strong—but likely understated—marker of Tether’s evolving financial power, yet he remains firmly satisfied with private ownership and ambition.